A new US tariff, $100 oil, and an AI scare hit Korean stocks in one week

A new US tariff, $100 oil, and an AI scare hit Korean stocks in one week

The US imposed a 12.5% Section 301 "forced labor" tariff on Korean goods on July 24, and the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) closed a week of three external shocks at 6,690.62.

Why this matters. Korea's largest chip exporters fell 7 to 8 percent in a single session, days after their products posted a record July export haul. The pressure came from Washington, the Gulf, and Silicon Valley.

What changed. Section 301 "forced labor" tariffs from the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) took effect July 24 on 60 trading partners, Korea at the top 12.5% rate, the same day the temporary 10% Section 122 global tariff expired. Seoul said it will work to hold Korea's burden at the previously negotiated 15% ceiling, per Korea Herald and MBC; a still-pending "excess capacity" Section 301 probe could push the total higher.

The numbers.

• July 20: KOSPI fell 4.46% to 6,516.27, sell-side sidecars on both exchanges, first session after the Constitution Day holiday; a 4%+ intraday rally July 21 triggered a buy-side sidecar, futures up 5.17%; Money Today, Herald Business
• July 24: KOSPI fell 5.72% to 6,690.62; Samsung Electronics down 7.59%, SK hynix down 8.34%; three drivers: the new tariff, Brent above $100 on Middle East tension, Nasdaq down 2.15% on AI capital-spending skepticism; Financial News, Reuters via The Spokesman-Review
• Won closed around 1,466.6 on July 24 even as equities fell: equity panic without a parallel currency move; Financial News, Businesskorea
• Financial authorities moved a 30-million-won deposit requirement for single-stock leveraged ETFs up from August 5 to July 31; FSC

One complication. Korea Customs Service data for July 1-20 showed semiconductor exports up 180.6% to $22.1 billion, a record for the July 1-20 period, per Financial News and MBC. The selloff is about future AI-capex payoff, not present demand.

The last time. The last comparable US trade-remedy action against Korea was the Section 232 steel tariffs of March 2018, when Seoul negotiated a quota-for-exemption deal rather than retaliate, capping steel exports at roughly 70% of the 2015-2017 average, effective May 1, 2018, per the Congressional Research Service and US Customs and Border Protection. The same posture is visible this week.

What's next. Microsoft and Meta report July 29 and Apple and Amazon July 30 (US time), the next AI-capex test. Samsung's Q2 call is July 30 at 10 a.m. KST.

Korea This Week

Seoul's mayor is convicted, and Kim Keon Hee's sentencing moves to the full bench

Seoul Central District Court found Mayor Oh Se-hoon guilty of Political Funds Act (정치자금법) violations on July 22, fining him 10 million won.

What changed. Oh commissioned five opinion polls from broker Myung Tae-kyun ahead of the 2021 Seoul by-election, a supporter covering the roughly 21 million won cost; the court also ordered forfeiture of that amount. A final fine of 1 million won or more costs an elected official the office; Oh said he will appeal immediately, per UPI, Korea Times, and Kyunghyang.

Worth knowing. The same Myung Tae-kyun polling operation is at the center of this case and Yoon Suk-yeol's July 13 conviction: different officials, the same broker.

What's next. The Supreme Court postponed Kim Keon Hee's sentencing the day before its scheduled July 24 date and referred her case to the full bench; Korean outlets read the referral as a response to lower courts splitting on the same free-polling charge. No new date is set, per MBC, SBS, and Korea JoongAng Daily.

Seoul apartment prices keep climbing as jeonse jumps ahead of moving season

Seoul apartment sale prices rose 0.27% the week of July 20, extending an unbroken run of weekly gains, with citywide jeonse (전세) prices up the same 0.27%, per Korea Real Estate Board (한국부동산원) data.

The numbers.

• Gangbuk-gu (강북구) jeonse: up 1.15% in one week, ahead of the fall moving season
• Seoul year-to-date: up 5.72% versus 2.69% nationwide and 1.25% outside the capital region
• Sources: Herald Business, Newspim, Aju News

What this means for you. Renters facing fall renewals should price both jeonse and monthly-rent (월세) options before September; the jeonse loan guide covers deposit-loan eligibility and what protections apply to your deposit.

Homeplus gets its rehabilitation back, with a September 4 deadline

The Seoul Bankruptcy Court reversed its own termination ruling on July 21 and extended Homeplus's rehabilitation-plan approval period to September 4.

What changed. Homeplus filed its appeal July 20 after securing a 200-billion-won emergency loan from Meritz; the court ruled "operating funds have been secured" and reversed the July 3 termination, per Kyunghyang and Korea JoongAng Daily.

What's next. Creditor and court approval of a revised rehabilitation plan is needed by September 4.

Auto-sector strikes widen: Hyundai sets a third round, Kia's members vote 92.5% for a mandate

Hyundai Motor's union announced a third round of partial strikes, four hours a day across July 29-31, and Kia's union passed a strike mandate with 92.5% support in a July 23 ballot.

What changed. Kia demands a 149,600-won base-pay rise, 30% of last year's profit as a bonus, and retirement age extended to 65; it must still clear Central Labor Relations Commission mediation before any strike date. Renault Korea's union has also secured legal strike rights. Industry estimates put Hyundai's production losses near 700 billion won, per Edaily, Herald Business, and Money Today.

What's next. Hyundai's strike days run July 29-31; Kia's timeline depends on the outcome of mediation.

Watch This Week

• July 29 (Wednesday). Yoon Suk-yeol's drone-infiltration appeal opens its first full hearing on the merits at Seoul High Court, largely closed to the public, per Kyunghyang. The first substantive appellate test of the martial-law-adjacent cases.

• July 29-30 (US time). Microsoft and Meta report July 29, Apple and Amazon July 30: the next read on whether AI capital-spending plans hold, the sentiment driving this week's chip-stock slide.

• July 30 (Thursday). Samsung Electronics' Q2 earnings call at 10 a.m. KST, the first detailed breakdown behind its preliminary 89.4-trillion-won operating-profit figure. Guidance here will set the tone for Korean equities into August.

In Conversation

Korea's largest-ever divorce ruling drew same-day coverage from CNN, Reuters, AFP, and Bloomberg, per Herald Business's roundup of foreign reporting. What made it a global story was not the size of the check. It was whose money was on trial.

The interesting part. Roh So-young is the daughter of former president Roh Tae-woo, and she married SK Group Chairman Choi Tae-won at the Blue House while her father ran the country. So when their nine-year divorce fight reached its final round, the question in front of the court was loaded: did a slush fund (비자금) that Roh Tae-woo allegedly funneled to help build SK count as Roh So-young's contribution to the family fortune? A 2024 appeals court said yes and awarded her 1.38 trillion won, pointing to a roughly 30-billion-won fund tied to her father. In October 2025 the Supreme Court threw that reasoning out: even if the money reached SK, it was illegal, and a court cannot credit illegal money as a spouse's contribution, per MBC.

On July 24 the Seoul High Court reheard the case (파기환송심): it excluded the slush fund from the math and still handed down the largest payout in Korean history, 944 billion won on a one-third to two-thirds split, rejecting Choi's argument that his SK shares were his own separate property and off-limits, per Money Today and Hankook Ilbo. The dirty-money question outlived the divorce: prosecutors have kept up a slush-fund concealment and tax-evasion probe into the Roh Tae-woo fund since a 2024 complaint, per Aju Business Daily.

Festivals worth checking out

• Still on through early August. Two summer festivals are in their final stretch: the Boryeong Mud Festival at Daecheon Beach in South Chungcheong runs through August 9, and the Incheon Pentaport Music Festival in Songdo, Incheon, runs July 31 to August 2. Both are reachable from Seoul by express bus or metro, and this is the last easy window to sort tickets or a room by the beach.

See the full festivals calendar for what's running across the country.

Good Reads

• Bloomberg. "Return of High-Risk Bets That Burned Traders Adds to Korea Woes" (July 22). Not a crash recap: where retail leverage went after the ETF crackdown. Contracts-for-difference holdings are up nearly two-thirds in a year to about 3.3 trillion won, rebuilding the same exposure that blew up in 2023. (link) (subscriber)

• The Korea Herald. "Agencies, producers pledge to cap actors' fees for state-supported films" (July 16). Star pay eats 18 to 19 percent of the average Korean film budget; agencies and producers signed a voluntary pledge to hold it under 10 percent for state-backed mid-budget films. A rare look at the economics behind the theater slump. (link)

• The Korea Times. "Foreign spending in Korea hits fresh high in May" (June 28). Foreign card spending hit a record 1.41 trillion won, up 73.7 percent year on year, with shopping and beauty leading, and it happened with no BTS concert to explain it. (link)

• Korea JoongAng Daily. "Korea's birthrate rises at fastest pace on record in Q1" (May 27). Births jumped 14.8 percent in the first quarter, the biggest quarterly gain since 1981, led by women in their 30s and a marriage rebound. Whether it holds is the open question. (link)

• Seoulstart. "Divorce in Korea: What Foreign Residents Need to Know." In the week Korea's largest-ever property-division ruling landed, the practical version for residents: the two divorce routes, the 2-year property-division deadline under Civil Act Article 839-2, and the F-6-3 visa path when the Korean spouse is at fault. Different payload from the Choi-Roh ruling above.

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New on Seoulstart this week

• Jobs board revamp: new search filters, "For you" job alerts, and similar-role suggestions.
• Meet the Seoulstart Jindo: a stray Jindo dog now wanders the site. Feed it, teach it tricks, and give it a home and a yard of its own.
• Sole proprietor registration in Korea: how to register as a sole proprietor (개인사업자), which visas allow it, the 20-day Hometax deadline, and what changes on your tax bill.
• Internships in Korea: which visas allow an internship, whether it must be paid, and how to convert to an E-7 work visa.
• Minimum wage for foreign workers: what the wage floor covers, who it applies to, and what to do if you are paid under it.

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That's Seoulstart Korea Weekly for this week. Korea's biggest stories this week were decided elsewhere: a tariff in Washington, oil prices in the Gulf, an AI debate in Silicon Valley. If any of it moved a money decision you were sitting on, a remittance, a jeonse loan, or a brokerage account, reply and tell me which. See you next week.